Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Thursday's MLB games (2024)

Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

Royally underrated

Three starting pitchers on the abbreviated Thursday schedule are among the top 20 in ERA since the start of the 2022 season (minimum 330 innings). You know all about Phillies RHP Zack Wheeler and Orioles RHP Corbin Burnes. Those fellows are aces. Care to guess the third? No, it is not Ben Lively.

Kansas City Royals RHP Michael Wacha is 29-12 with a 3.44 ERA and 1.16 WHIP since the start of the 2022 season (his ERA ranks 19th over that span), and quite a few of the hurlers ahead of him are not helping fantasy managers much these days. That inactive list includes Sandy Alcantara, Shane Bieber, Blake Snell and Merrill Kelly. Do you view Wacha as one of the top 20 starting pitchers over the past several seasons? Chances are you do not. After all, who would?

Wacha remains rostered in a measly 7.7% of ESPN standard leagues entering his Thursday home outing against the first-place Cleveland Guardians. OK, so the Guardians average more than 5 runs per game, among the league leaders, and Wacha may not be the best streamer for this particular matchup. Then again, Wacha has faced good lineups the past few years. His work demands more attention, even with a 4.07 ERA and underwhelming strikeout rate in 2024. Fantasy managers just rarely seem excited about a pitcher on his sixth team in as many seasons.

Wacha has permitted more than three earned runs in only four of his 13 outings this season, and it hasn't happened since the first week of May. He outpitched his FIP over the past two seasons, but this year he has been a bit unlucky, as a 3.67 FIP ranks 39th among qualified starters. Wacha is not Wheeler or Burnes. Nobody is saying that. But Wacha should no longer be viewed as a curiosity in fantasy. Overachiever, perhaps, but if someone overachieves for years, perhaps the title does not fit!

What you may have missed on Wednesday

By Todd Zola

• Milwaukee Brewers 3B Joey Ortiz left last night's game in the sixth inning due to neck soreness. Ortiz had already been experiencing the issue for about a week. The club hopes that today's off day will be all Ortiz needs to return to the lineup on Friday. The Brewers placed Gary Sanchez on the 10-day IL due to a strained calf. They called up C Eric Haase to back up regular C William Contreras. General manager Matt Arnold indicated that RP Devin Williams is ahead of schedule and could return earlier than expected. The original timeline called for Williams to be back in late July.

• The Pittsburgh Pirates reported that SP Martin Perez will be activated in advance of Friday night's road date with the Atlanta Braves. Perez will start instead of SP Jared Jones, with Jones' turn being skipped to manage the rookie's workload. Jones' next start will be sometime next week. General manager Ben Cherington has indicated that Jones and fellow freshman Paul Skenes will receive similar treatment all season. That is, neither will be shut down, but they'll miss occasional starts to limit their innings.

• Philadelphia Phillies SP Spencer Turnbull completed only three innings last night as he was forced from the contest with a sore shoulder. He managed only 36 pitches, about half of what the Phillies had earmarked for Turnbull, who was making his first start since April. After the game, Turnbull shared that he wasn't worried, but the Phillies will conduct an evaluation today. Turnbull's return to the rotation was necessitated with SP Taijuan Walker getting placed on the 15-day IL due to right finger inflammation.

• The AL East affair between the Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays was suspended with one out in the top of the second inning. It will be resumed before their regularly scheduled game on August 26. As per policy, any statistics that were accrued last night will be captured in this week's scoring, but everything from the resumption will not be included in any fantasy scoring at all. Blue Jays OF Daulton Varsho was not in last night's lineup, marking the fourth consecutive game he's been sidelined with a sore back. Varsho remains questionable for tonight's home date with the New York Yankees.

Everything else you need to know for Thursday

• Chicago Cubs LHP Shota Imanaga had his Wednesday outing pushed a day to Thursday afternoon at San Francisco, perhaps to get his performance back on track. Imanaga looked like a Cy Young award favorite with his 0.84 ERA heading into his May 29 outing at Milwaukee. He allowed seven runs that day. Imanaga rebounded after that, but then came last week against the Mets and, well, 10 earned runs over three innings does major damage to one's numbers. Imanaga now drags a 2.96 ERA into the Giants game. Should we trust him in fantasy? The Giants are no offensive juggernaut, but they hit much better against left-handed pitching. This may be a wise time, even with the extra day off, to sit Imanaga in fantasy.

• Minnesota Twins RHP David Festa makes his big league debut in Arizona, replacing the injured RHP Chris Paddack in the rotation. Festa, a Seton Hall product and a 13th-round pick in the 2021 draft, struck out 91 hitters over 63 2/3 innings (15 starts) at Triple-A St. Paul, among the highest totals in the minor leagues. There is always risk when it comes to new pitchers getting their first chance, even though opponents haven't seen them before. Festa features a solid slider and changeup along with a mid-90 mph fastball, and there is obvious strikeout upside.

• Cincinnati Reds 3B Noelvi Marte is eligible to play in the major leagues Thursday after serving an 80-game suspension for testing positive for a performance-enhancing substance, and it appears the Reds are not wasting any time. Marte will rejoin the Reds in time to face the Cardinals, though he may not be in the lineup. Marte hit .316/.366/.456 over 35 games and 123 PA as a rookie last season, staying just below the line to retain rookie status. He struggled during a 12-game rehab assignment for Triple-A Louisville, hitting .151/.151/.170, so it makes sense for fantasy managers to be patient, even if the Reds are not.

• Betting tip of the day: Some of the preeminent strikeout artists pitch on Thursday, so perhaps we should go "all in" with big numbers! Chris Sale is up against the team he started with, the lowly White Sox. We like OVER 7.5 strikeouts at -135. Zack Wheeler is at home against the feeble Marlins. Take him for OVER 6.5 strikeouts at -155. Corbin Burnes is at home against the Rangers. Wait, he's whiffed five hitters in three out of five outings and the defending champs make contact? Take UNDER 5.5 whiffs at -120.

It's never too late to start a free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday. Come and join the fun!

Starting pitcher rankings for Thursday

Reliever report

To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

Hitting report

Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.

Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Thursday

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and lots more.

• Ryan O'Hearn (BAL, 1B -- 34%) vs. Jon Gray

• Michael Massey (KC, 2B -- 4%) vs. Ben Lively

• Sean Murphy (ATL, C -- 45%) at Chad Kuhl

• Jorge Soler (SF, RF -- 47%) vs. Shota Imanaga

• MJ Melendez (KC, RF -- 5%) vs. Lively

• Joc Pederson (ARI, LF -- 13%) vs. David Festa

• Jarred Kelenic (ATL, LF -- 11%) at Kuhl

• Carlos Santana (MIN, 1B -- 17%) at Jordan Montgomery

• Whit Merrifield (PHI, 2B -- 3%) vs. Trevor Rogers

• Matt Chapman (SF, 3B -- 37%) vs. Imanaga

Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Thursday

• Christopher Morel (CHC, CF -- 61%) at Jordan Hicks

• Dansby Swanson (CHC, SS -- 57%) at Hicks

• Seiya Suzuki (CHC, RF -- 74%) at Hicks

• Anthony Volpe (NYY, SS -- 86%) at Jose Berrios

• Adolis Garcia (TEX, RF -- 92%) at Corbin Burnes

• Luis Robert Jr. (CHW, CF -- 79%) vs. Chris Sale

• Logan O'Hoppe (LAA, C -- 50%) vs. Jack Flaherty

• Jordan Westburg (BAL, 2B -- 87%) vs. Gray

• Luis Rengifo (LAA, 2B -- 67%) vs. Flaherty

• Jazz Chisholm Jr. (MIA, CF -- 77%) at Zack Wheeler

THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Thursday

• Atlanta Braves at Kuhl

• Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Festa

• Kansas City Royals vs. Lively